Blockbuster November: The best month ever in the history of domestic aviation in India

November 2024 has been the best month for domestic aviation in India. The sum of daily passenger numbers declared by the Ministry of Civil Aviation on its website shows that the month saw 1,40,23,778 passengers across 91,728 flights until Nov 29, 2024, with a day more to spare. This beats December 2023’s record, when 1,37,97,352 passengers flew on 91,529 domestic departures. This year, May came close to this number with 1,37,95,301 passengers on 93551 domestic departures.

This comes from the industry recording more than 5 lakh passengers daily for the first time. On Sunday, November 17, 2024, the domestic industry carried 5,05,412 passengers. This record broke again the very next Sunday when 5,05,611 took to the skies. The month maintained an average of 4,83,578 passengers per day, a significant growth over October when 4,46,816 passengers travelled domestically on average.

Both the previous highs were in months with 31 days in the month, unlike November when the numbers were achieved in 30, indicating very strong demand and occupancy. The regulator will declare the summary for the month along with load factors and On-Time Performance towards the middle of the month, which reconciles the data and could see a minor change in numbers. The numbers are 8.65% more than the per-day average of December 2023, the previous high.

Capacity is going up

October saw an average of 3,153 domestic flights per day, while November saw 3165, an increase of only about 12 flights a day. The slow increase in capacity is a mix of IndiGo’s delivery and the ungrounding of SpiceJet, with Akasa, Air India, and Air India Express not adding any new aircraft.

With the peak holiday season approaching, the additional capacity will help rationalise fares, though they will likely remain high. Akasa Air and Air India Express have not inducted the planned capacity, both impacted by the strike at Boeing, which delayed deliveries.

Good times for airlines

IndiGo reported a loss of ₹987 crore in the July to September quarter, after seven consecutive quarters of profit. During the announcement, the airline indicated normalisation of demand and yields. However, the last month has been anything but normalisation on either demand or yields.

Passengers have complained about high fares even for short sectors, but the demand has been such that it hasn’t deterred them, and load factors (occupancy rates) for major airlines are above 90% for almost all days of November.

After a relatively muted October, which saw the Diwali holidays, airlines had announced flash sales. That tactic seems to have shored up the loads, allowing airlines to price better.

What has also helped is the wedding season, which many have called out to be a bumper one this year. This will help with spending and travel in what was otherwise a muted quarter start.

A handful of airlines, including some of the major ones and regional carriers, will rue the absence of additional capacity in this peak period.

November was actually off to a slow start. The month began with less than 4 lakh passengers being flown on Diwali day, a traditional low. Traffic picked up as the month progressed with two days of above 5 lakh passenger traffic, a first in the history of aviation in India.

All eyes are now on December to see if it will beat the November numbers. As the year comes to a close, it will record the highest-ever yearly traffic, surpassing the best recorded in 2023.

The year ahead is full of aircraft deliveries for all airlines and some milestones, such as the induction of XLR by IndiGo. Can the momentum be sustained? It possibly will due to the addition of capacity.

The real question is whether the margins can be sustained. In the past, hypercapacity addition has led to cutthroat competition. To avoid repeating this, all airlines will need to exercise immense discipline.